Container freight markets ended the first half of 2026 in a far stronger pricing environment than many shippers anticipated at the beginning of the year. Although freight rates have eased from their highest levels, they remain well above historical averages after the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) climbed to approximately 2,572, compared with a pre-crisis baseline near 1,200.
For chemical importers, exporters and procurement teams, H1 delivered an important lesson. Freight markets respond to more than fuel prices alone. Even as Brent crude stabilised around $74 per barrel after peaking near $126 in May, structural changes to carrier operations continue to support higher freight costs. As a result, companies should expect gradual and only partial rate normalisation during H2 2026 rather than a full return to pre-crisis pricing.
Why Container Freight Rates Increased So Sharply
Several factors combined to push freight costs significantly higher during the first half of the year.
Unlike previous freight cycles driven mainly by demand, H1 2026 reflected multiple cost pressures affecting almost every international carrier.
The primary drivers included:
Widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using shorter traditional routes.
War risk surcharges introduced in response to regional security concerns.
Elevated bunker fuel costs during the crude oil price spike.
Longer voyage durations that reduced available vessel capacity.
Each factor increased operating costs, and together they produced one of the strongest freight market rallies since the global logistics disruptions earlier in the decade.
Understanding the SCFI Recovery
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index serves as one of the shipping industry's most closely watched indicators.
Its rise from around 1,200 before the crisis to approximately 2,572 at the peak reflected a substantial increase in container shipping costs across major global trade lanes.
While recent declines suggest that the market has moved beyond its most volatile phase, current pricing remains considerably above historical norms.
For procurement professionals, this means transportation should continue to be treated as a major component of landed cost calculations throughout H2.
Brent Crude Has Fallen, but Freight Has Not
One of the most notable developments as H1 closes is the sharp decline in oil prices.
Brent crude has stabilised near $74 per barrel, a significant improvement from the May peak of approximately $126.
Lower oil prices have reduced bunker fuel costs, removing one of the largest contributors to higher freight rates.
However, lower fuel expenses alone are not enough to restore historical freight pricing.
Shipping costs continue to reflect operational decisions that extend beyond energy markets.
Cape of Good Hope Routing Has Become the New Standard
Perhaps the most important structural change in container shipping is the continued reliance on the Cape of Good Hope route.
Major container carriers have publicly committed to maintaining this routing strategy through the remainder of the year.
That decision has important commercial consequences.
Longer voyages require additional sailing time.
Ships consume more fuel despite lower bunker prices.
Container equipment remains tied up for longer periods.
Fleet productivity declines because vessels complete fewer annual voyages.
These factors continue supporting freight rates even as some individual cost pressures ease.
What Higher Freight Costs Mean for Chemical Trade
Freight represents a significant share of delivered cost for many internationally traded chemicals.
Products frequently transported in containers include:
Titanium dioxide for coatings and plastics.
Citric acid for food, beverage and pharmaceutical applications.
Sodium benzoate used in food preservation.
Xanthan gum supplied to food processors and industrial manufacturers.
Sodium gluconate for construction chemicals and industrial cleaning.
Although bulk chemicals follow different shipping patterns, container freight trends still influence many specialty and packaged chemical markets.
Higher transportation costs can reduce supplier competitiveness and affect procurement decisions across multiple regions.
Carrier Commitments Matter More Than Fuel Prices
Many buyers assume freight rates automatically fall when oil prices decline.
The H1 experience demonstrates why this assumption is often incorrect.
Carrier networks have already been reorganised around longer sailing routes.
Shipping schedules have been revised.
Fleet deployment plans have changed.
Commercial contracts have been negotiated based on these operating assumptions.
Until carriers restore shorter routing options, freight markets are unlikely to return to previous pricing levels regardless of bunker fuel trends.
Procurement Strategies for H2 2026
Chemical buyers should prepare procurement plans based on continued freight market resilience rather than expecting rapid cost reductions.
Several practical actions can help.
Obtain freight quotations earlier during supplier negotiations.
Separate product pricing from logistics costs wherever possible.
Compare multiple shipping options before confirming purchases.
Review inventory policies for imported raw materials.
Monitor carrier announcements regarding routing decisions.
These measures improve budgeting accuracy while reducing exposure to freight market volatility.
Will Freight Rates Continue Falling?
Freight costs are likely to moderate further if geopolitical conditions continue improving and fuel markets remain stable.
However, several factors suggest that any decline will probably be gradual.
Carrier routing commitments remain unchanged.
Voyage distances continue exceeding historical averages.
War risk surcharges may persist in some regions.
Shipping companies remain cautious about restoring previous network structures too quickly.
Taken together, these conditions point toward partial rather than complete freight normalisation during H2.
The Bottom Line for Procurement Teams
The first half of 2026 confirmed that container freight markets can remain elevated even after some of the original cost pressures begin easing. While lower bunker fuel prices have reduced one important expense, longer Cape of Good Hope routing and established carrier operating strategies continue supporting freight rates well above pre-crisis levels.
Chemical buyers should therefore plan H2 procurement budgets around sustained transportation costs rather than expecting a rapid return to historical freight pricing. Companies that incorporate realistic logistics assumptions into sourcing decisions will be better positioned to manage landed costs and maintain supply chain reliability throughout the remainder of the year. Ready to source Titanium Dioxide from verified global suppliers? Explore competitive offers on our platform today.
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