10 February 2026
Feed Ingredients
Soybean meal supply in 2026 is increasingly shaped by climate variability across major producing regions. As a primary protein source for poultry, swine, dairy, and aquaculture feed, soybean meal availability depends heavily on crop yields, harvesting conditions, and crushing economics. For feed buyers, weather driven risks now rank alongside price and logistics as core procurement concerns.
Understanding how climate affects soybean yields and downstream meal supply helps buyers plan sourcing strategies that remain stable even during volatile growing seasons.
Soybean meal is produced only after soybeans are harvested and crushed. When weather disrupts planting, flowering, or pod filling, the impact cascades through the supply chain. Lower yields reduce available beans, tighten crushing volumes, and ultimately limit meal output.
In 2026, more frequent heat stress, irregular rainfall, and shifting climate patterns increase the probability of supply disruptions. Buyers that rely on single origin sourcing face higher exposure to these risks.
Soybean meal production rises and falls with soybean availability. In the United States, projected soybean yields of around 53 bushels per acre support meal output near 59.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season. Crushing capacity has expanded significantly, now estimated between 2.8 and 3.1 billion bushels, strengthening the link between harvest size and meal supply.
When yields meet expectations, crushers operate at higher utilization rates, increasing meal availability for domestic use and exports.
Strong demand for soybean oil from renewable diesel and biofuel programs influences crushing decisions. While higher crushing volumes generally increase meal supply, shifts in crush margins can affect where meal is allocated.
When oil values dominate margins, meal may face tighter availability in export channels or specific regions, even when total output remains high. Feed buyers increasingly track crush margins to anticipate these shifts.
Soybeans are particularly sensitive to high temperatures during flowering and pod development. Heat stress reduces pod set and seed size, directly lowering yields. Climate models indicate that prolonged temperature increases could reduce average yields in key growing regions over the coming decade.
In extreme scenarios, parts of the US Midwest could experience significant yield pressure, although improved genetics and agronomy continue to offset some risks.
Irregular rainfall presents a dual challenge. Drought conditions reduce soil moisture and limit plant development, while excessive rainfall delays planting and harvesting. In South America, La Niña patterns often bring uneven rainfall, affecting planting schedules in Brazil and increasing drought risk in Argentina.
Flooding during harvest can also damage crops and reduce quality, impacting crushing efficiency.
Brazil remains the largest soybean producer globally and is expected to achieve high output levels in 2026, supported by expanded acreage and improved farming practices. However, regional variability persists, particularly in southern Brazil where rainfall patterns remain inconsistent.
Argentina faces greater yield sensitivity due to climate exposure and soil moisture conditions. As one of the world’s largest soybean meal exporters, yield fluctuations in Argentina directly affect global meal trade volumes.
The United States benefits from relatively stable acreage and advanced crop management, supporting consistent yields in the near term. Long term climate models suggest gradual yield pressure beyond 2030, but 2026 supply remains broadly supported.
Other regions, including parts of Eastern Europe and Asia, contribute smaller volumes that help diversify global supply but do not fully offset disruptions in major producers.
Global soybean meal trade is projected near 82 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with Argentina leading exports at roughly 28 million tons. Yield shortfalls in exporting countries tighten global availability and raise competition among importers.
In deficit years, buyers may face longer lead times, higher prices, and allocation limits, especially in Asia where demand growth remains strong.
Yield driven volatility spreads quickly through feed supply chains. Lower production tightens stocks and increases reliance on spot markets, where price swings are more pronounced. Buyers without forward coverage or diversified sourcing are most exposed.
Sourcing soybean meal from multiple origins reduces dependence on any single weather pattern. Combining supply from the United States, Brazil, and Argentina helps balance risks from droughts, floods, or heat waves affecting individual regions.
This approach also improves negotiating leverage during tight supply periods.
Forward contracts provide visibility on volume and pricing, while buffer stocks help bridge short term disruptions. Many buyers align purchases with harvest cycles to capture periods of higher availability and more favorable pricing.
Inventory strategies should reflect regional risk profiles and storage capabilities.
Feed buyers benefit from tracking seasonal weather forecasts, La Niña and El Niño updates, and planting progress reports. Crop condition ratings, yield estimates, and crushing utilization data provide early signals of supply shifts.
Export flows, port congestion, and inland logistics performance also influence delivered availability and should be monitored closely.
In 2026, climate variability and yield performance remain central drivers of soybean meal availability. Heat stress, rainfall irregularity, and regional production shifts continue to influence global supply balances and trade flows.
Feed buyers that adopt diversified sourcing, proactive contracting, and close market monitoring are better positioned to manage uncertainty. Chemtradeasia supports feed manufacturers with market insights, origin diversification, and strategic sourcing solutions for soybean meal across Asia-Pacific and global markets, helping buyers secure stable supply in an increasingly climate sensitive environment.
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