06 May 2026
Feed Ingredients
Feed-grade poultry by-product meal is estimated to be trading at approximately USD 650–800/MT CFR Southeast Asia in 2025–2026, depending on origin, specification, and shipment format, per industry pricing assessments from Fastmarkets and The Jacobsen. The primary price floor is HPAI-driven contraction in US processing volumes, while easing grain costs are applying moderate downward pressure. The net balance is sideways-to-firm, with supply risk concentrated in the US origin corridor and pricing advantage held by Brazilian product.
The poultry meal market entering 2026 is shaped by a split signal that procurement teams cannot resolve with a single data point. Grain-driven production costs are running near four-year lows, corn and soybean meal are both below their long-run averages, and USDA's record 2025-26 corn crop is keeping feed cost indices approximately 1.2 percent below 2025 levels, per Tradeasia market intelligence. At the same time, by-product supply remains constrained relative to pre-2022 baselines because HPAI has removed the flock volume that generates the rendering feedstock.
Feed-grade poultry by-product meal (PBPM) was assessed at approximately USD 700–800 per short ton FOB US Southeast in mid-2024, down from approximately USD 975 per short ton at the same point in 2023, per Fastmarkets. By early 2026, industry estimates place feed-grade PBPM in the USD 580–650/MT range FOB US, with CFR Southeast Asia prices ranging from approximately USD 650–750/MT depending on origin, shipment format, and specification. Brazilian-origin poultry meal offers a meaningful landed cost advantage, with FOB Santos assessments running approximately USD 480–540/MT, and CFR Southeast Asia roughly USD 100–150/MT below equivalent US product after freight, per Tradeasia pricing data from Q1 2026.
The IMF Global Poultry Price series, tracked via FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, registered 168.40 US cents per pound as of March 2026, up from 164.24 US cents per pound in December 2025 — a directional signal of firming prices at the benchmark level.
Poultry meal pricing follows a two-layer cost structure: the cost of producing the poultry that generates the processing by-products, and the cost of the rendering operation itself. Feed grain prices drive the first layer; energy and rendering throughput costs drive the second.
On the grain side, soybean meal averaged approximately USD 367–410 per tonne on major export markets in late 2025 to early 2026, per USDA FAS and Ceva Poultry market data, well below the USD 630–660 per tonne recorded during the 2022-23 commodity peak. This easing has reduced the cost of growing the birds whose by-products feed the rendering sector, theoretically supporting lower meal prices. In Thailand specifically, soybean meal was assessed at approximately USD 410/MT in early marketing year 2025/26, down from the pandemic peak, per Thailand Feed Mill Association (TFMA) data.
The supply-side constraint that overrides grain economics is HPAI. Over 168 million birds have been confirmed HPAI-positive across 1,689 US flocks since February 2022, according to USDA APHIS and the Congressional Research Service as of April 2025. US egg producers were approximately 8 percent below their 2022 flock baseline entering 2026, per EW Nutrition. That flock depletion reduces processing throughput, which in turn reduces the volume of by-products available to rendering plants. The cost of grain may be falling, but the volume of feedstock moving through US renderers is constrained. The result is a price floor that grain economics alone cannot explain.
The market is best characterized as balanced-to-firm, with the balance of risk weighted toward tightness rather than oversupply. Brazil is partially compensating for US volume gaps. Brazilian chicken production reached approximately 15.35 million metric tons in 2025 and is forecast at 15.80 million metric tons in 2026, per USDA FAS (October 2025 Brazil Attache report). Brazil's commercial sector has remained free of HPAI in commercial operations, and the country's large-scale, vertically integrated processing sector generates substantial by-product volumes for rendering. Brazilian poultry meal is moving strongly into Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern markets as buyers diversify away from US origins.
The BRL/USD rate is the critical variable for Southeast Asian buyers sourcing Brazilian product. When the Brazilian real weakens against the US dollar, as it has through much of 2024-2025 due to domestic fiscal pressures, Brazilian product becomes more competitive on a CFR basis and exerts downward pressure on regional prices. Vietnamese, Indonesian, and Thai buyers who shifted sourcing volume toward Brazilian origins during 2024 secured a meaningful freight advantage as well, since Brazilian ports already operated on Cape-of-Good-Hope routing that absorbed the Red Sea disruption without additional transit time.
On the demand side, the aquafeed sector is the primary growth engine pulling poultry meal deeper into Southeast Asian formulations. Asia Pacific accounts for approximately 90% of global aquaculture output, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and China among the top producers. The Asia Pacific aquafeed market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.55% through 2033, per IMARC Group. As fishmeal prices remained elevated at approximately USD 1,446–1,722/MT (IMF/FRED, June-July 2025), poultry by-product meal, at a 50-60% discount to fishmeal on a per-tonne basis, became the dominant cost-reduction lever available to aquafeed formulators. Research published in PMC (2025) confirmed that up to 75% of fishmeal protein can be replaced with poultry by-product meal in rainbow trout diets without negatively affecting growth performance, reinforcing the formulation case.
Vietnam is the largest Southeast Asian importer of processed animal protein feed ingredients, with total feed imports exceeding USD 663 million in 2024, up approximately 10% year-on-year, per ResearchAndMarkets Vietnam Feed Industry report. China (approximately 31%), Thailand (approximately 17%), and the United States (approximately 9%) were the top sourcing origins across feed ingredients, with Brazilian product increasingly competing on price in the protein meal segment.
Vietnam produced 22-26 million metric tons of compound feed in 2025-2026, with aquafeed ranked third by volume at approximately 4.6 million metric tons, per Alltech data cited in Feed and Additive magazine. Key aquafeed buyers including Vinh Hoan and Skretting Vietnam evaluate poultry meal on digestible protein content, ash levels, and amino acid profile, particularly methionine and lysine fractions relevant to catfish and shrimp nutrition.
Indonesia and Thailand each produce approximately 18-22 million metric tons of compound feed annually, per IndexBox 2026 data. Thailand's broiler production is forecast to grow 4% in 2026, per TFMA, expanding domestic by-product availability but not eliminating import demand for higher-specification meal grades serving aquafeed and pet food channels. Container transit times from US Gulf or East Coast ports to Southeast Asian destinations run 25-35 days; from Santos or Paranagua (Brazil), 28-38 days, per Tradeasia shipping intelligence.
Base Case: Sideways-to-Firm, USD 650–780/MT CFR Southeast Asia Through H2 2026
In the base case, grain cost relief continues as the record 2025-26 US corn crop maintains downward pressure on poultry production costs, supporting by-product supply volumes from Brazil and recovering US broiler operations (USDA forecasts 2025 broiler production up 1.4% from 2024). Brazilian supply compensates for ongoing US HPAI-related gaps, keeping Southeast Asian CFR prices from spiking materially. Price direction is sideways with a slight upward bias into H2 2026 as aquafeed demand seasonally strengthens in shrimp production cycles across Vietnam and Indonesia.
Upside Risk: USD 780–900/MT CFR Southeast Asia
If HPAI extends into the summer 2026 migration window in the US, processing throughput could fall sharply enough to create genuine by-product scarcity at rendering plants. A simultaneous disruption to Brazilian production, whether through La Nina-driven drought in Parana and Santa Catarina or a new disease event, would remove the primary price-moderating alternative. This scenario is estimated at approximately 25-30% probability for H2 2026, per Tradeasia scenario analysis.
Downside Risk: USD 580–650/MT CFR Southeast Asia
Rapid HPAI resolution and accelerated US flock rebuilding in Q2-Q3 2026 would restore processing throughput and expand by-product supply. Combined with continued grain price weakness and strong Brazilian output, this scenario would push CFR Southeast Asia prices toward the lower end of the current range. A significant weakening of aquafeed demand growth (for example, from disease outbreaks in shrimp or catfish sectors in Vietnam or Indonesia) would further limit upside.
Current Recommendation: Partial Coverage — Lock In 60-70% on Term, Reserve 30-40% for Spot
The market is balanced with asymmetric upside risk. The primary downside (grain cost pass-through) is already largely priced in. The primary upside risk (HPAI-driven supply contraction in H2 2026) is not yet priced in. Waiting for the market to fall further exposes buyers to the possibility of procurement gaps precisely when seasonal aquafeed demand peaks.
Term contract buyers should fix Q3 and Q4 2026 volumes now at approximately USD 650–720/MT CFR Southeast Asia for Brazilian-origin product, or USD 730–780/MT for US-origin pet food-grade meal. Index-linked contracts tied to The Jacobsen or Fastmarkets PBPM assessments are preferable to fixed-price structures given the current uncertainty around HPAI trajectory.
Spot buyers in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand should maintain 8-10 weeks of safety stock at destination and consider a dual-origin sourcing structure, with Brazilian product covering 60-70% of volume requirements and US-origin covering the balance. This structure maximizes price competitiveness while preserving supply security if either origin experiences a disruption.
Key risk to this recommendation: if APHIS HPAI case counts accelerate through Q2 2026 and the USDA cuts poultry production forecasts materially in the May or June WASDE, shift immediately to aggressive forward buying at prevailing CFR levels before exporters revise their price lists upward.
Q: What is poultry meal currently trading at in Southeast Asia? A: Feed-grade poultry by-product meal is estimated to be trading at approximately USD 650–750/MT CFR Southeast Asia as of Q1-Q2 2026, depending on origin (US versus Brazilian) and specification grade, per Tradeasia pricing intelligence and Fastmarkets PBPM assessments.
Q: What is driving poultry meal prices in 2025-2026? A: The two primary drivers are HPAI-related contraction in US poultry processing volumes (which reduces by-product supply available to renderers) and the relative competitiveness of Brazilian-origin product, where a weak BRL/USD rate and HPAI-free commercial status are creating pricing pressure. Easing grain costs are a moderating downward factor.
Q: Is poultry meal going up or down in Southeast Asia in 2026? A: The base case is sideways-to-firm through H2 2026. Grain cost easing provides a mild downward pull, but HPAI-driven supply risk in the US and growing aquafeed demand in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are supporting prices. A material HPAI escalation through summer 2026 could push CFR Southeast Asia prices 15-20% higher from current levels.
Q: Which origin is most competitive for Southeast Asian poultry meal buyers? A: Brazilian-origin poultry meal is currently the most price-competitive for Southeast Asian buyers, with FOB Santos estimates at USD 480-540/MT in Q1 2026, compared to USD 580-650/MT FOB US Southeast. The CFR advantage for Brazilian product in Southeast Asian ports is approximately USD 100-150/MT, driven by both origin price and freight structure.
Q: How does fishmeal price affect poultry meal prices in Southeast Asia? A: Poultry by-product meal is a partial substitute for fishmeal in aquafeed formulations. When fishmeal prices are elevated (averaging USD 1,446-1,722/MT in mid-2025, per IMF/FRED), aquafeed formulators increase poultry meal inclusion rates, which increases regional demand and provides a price floor. The typical poultry meal discount to fishmeal of 50-60% on a per-tonne basis is the formulation trigger that determines switching behavior.
Q: Should I buy poultry meal on term contract or spot in Southeast Asia in 2026? A: A hybrid structure is recommended: fix 60-70% of annual volume on term contracts at current CFR levels for supply security ahead of the seasonal aquafeed demand peak, and source the remaining 30-40% on spot to capture any further price softening from grain cost passthrough. Dual-origin coverage (Brazil and US) is advisable to hedge against a concentrated HPAI event in either origin.
Q: What is the best time of year to buy poultry meal in Southeast Asia? A: Q1 and early Q2 typically represent the most favorable buying window, before shrimp and catfish production cycle demand builds through Q3 and before the Northern Hemisphere autumn HPAI seasonal risk window. Buyers who lock in volumes before the July-September peak aquafeed demand period in Vietnam and Indonesia consistently achieve lower average CFR costs versus reactive spot procurement.
Q: What import regulations apply to poultry meal in Southeast Asia? A: Vietnam (MARD), Indonesia (BKIPM), and China (GACC) maintain import registration requirements for processed animal proteins. Buyers must ensure the exporting plant is registered in the destination country before shipment, and certificates of origin, veterinary health certificates, and processing standard documentation (confirming treatment temperature and time) are required at customs clearance.
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